φ A Medium-Term and Long-Term US Market Perspective
April 16th 2006
This market perspective is based on the Elliott Wave Principle and represents
a best estimate of the most probable future market direction. For more information regarding Elliott Wave
Principle please see our Elliott Wave International site review here.
Green or Red Circle
Green or Red Arrow
Monthly Commentary April 16th 2006
On the monthly chart we are working on the assumtion that Wave 5 of the
uptrend that started at 1179 around the end of October 2005 terminated on 4/5/6
at 1311. We are therefore anticipating a correction which we believe started after a close below 1294
on 4/11/06 which was later than the estimated last day for the Wave 5 terminus and below the minimum Wave
5 terminus price of 1294. At this point we are short with a stop at 1315 which would invalidate
our assumtion for the Wave 5 terminus.
Yearly Commentary April 16th 2006
On the yearly chart we are working on the assumption that the estimated terminus
of Wave 5 of the uptrend on the Monthly chart is also the terminus of the Wave 5 uptrend on the yearly chart. This would be
confirmed with a close below 1233 and would signify an excellent point to go short. A close above 1315
before 9/20/6 would invalidate this assuption and would indicate an excellent place to go long.